The first of two Black Book investor briefs identifies the health-tech categories demonstrating pilot-to-scale momentum and early indicators of exit-level multiples.
LAS VEGAS, October 17, 2025 (Newswire.com) - Ahead of HLTH 2025, a targeted pulse of 154 provider buyers and past HLTH attendees indicates that despite rebrands, M&A, and a flood of recycled ideas seeking capital, three categories are positioned to generate disproportionate enterprise value and near-term displacement in Q1 2026.
For investors: venture, growth equity, private equity, and strategics, as well as enterprise HCIT buyers, these findings mark where pilots are converting to production and incumbents face accelerating erosion.
According to Doug Brown, Founder of Black Book Research, "We're entering a correction phase where investors are prioritizing verifiable outcomes over narratives. The short-term winners are those converting pilots to scalable contracts, and the next wave of exits will come from platforms proving measurable labor substitution and revenue acceleration inside six months."
Methodological Integrity Statement: This independent flash poll was conducted without vendor, investor, sponsor, or advertising influence. No companies ever included provided financial support or maintain subscriber or advertising relationships with Black Book Research. Findings represent unaided feedback from verified U.S. health-system decision-makers and HLTH alumni, with a 95% confidence level (± 3.8%).
Three Solution Categories Poised to Close Down the First Generation of Health IT Tools
The following three solution areas emerged as the most likely to displace incumbent systems by early 2026. Respondents cited measurable ROI, integration depth, and automation maturity as the reasons these "What's In / What's Out" shifts are accelerating.
1) AI Virtual Observation & Virtual Nursing - What's In: Predictive Safety Platforms with EHR-Native Workflows
| What's Out: Legacy Tele-Sitting Carts/CCTV + Services
Why It Matters to Investors: The market is shifting from reactive tele-sitting to AI-assisted predictive safety and workflow orchestration, delivering quantifiable labor substitution and rapid payback.
Poised Big Winners: Artisight, care.ai, LookDeep Health, Collette Health (MedSitter), Neteera
At-Risk Losers: Single-purpose tele-sitting carts/CCTV systems lacking predictive analytics or EHR/RTLS integration; outsourced observer models unable to sustain ≥ 1:12 ratios; fragmented, multi-vendor safety stacks.
Investor Diligence Cues: Outcome reporting at the unit level; EHR-native tasking; CapEx-light deployments; privacy modalities for psych/SNF units
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2) Ambient AI Clinical Documentation - What's In: Ambient Capture → Structured Notes with CDI
| What's Out: Dictation, Human Scribes, and "AI Note" Add-Ons Requiring Heavy Edits
Why It Matters to Investors: Documentation AI has matured into measurable workflow relief, replacing dictation, transcription, and human scribes while lifting charge-capture performance.
Poised Big Winners: Abridge, Ambience Healthcare, Nabla Copilot, Suki, Heidi Health
At-Risk Losers: Legacy dictation and scribe vendors with unsustainable labor costs; "AI note" add-ons requiring post-visit editing and failing to reduce after-hours charting.
Investor Diligence Cues: Time reclaimed per encounter; edit rates under 5%; Epic/Cerner/Athena integration; CDI and revenue-per-provider improvements.
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3) Autonomous Medical Coding (AI-Driven Coding/RCM) - What's In: Coder-in-the-Loop Autonomy with Explainability
| What's Out: Rules-Based CAC and Labor-Intensive Outsourcing
Why It Matters to Investors: Autonomous coding platforms now deliver faster cycle times, lower DNFB, and improved first-pass accuracy-direct levers for revenue acceleration.
Poised Big Winners: Fathom, CodaMetrix, Nym Health
At-Risk Losers: Rules-based CAC modules with opaque accuracy; offshore coding BPOs vulnerable to wage inflation; legacy RCM suites with stagnant automation metrics.
Investor Diligence Cues: Specialty-level accuracy; coder-in-loop validation; appeal/denial ratios; cycle-time compression and cost-per-case reduction.
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Cross-Category Signals for Capital Allocators
What Else is Coming In - Big Winners: Platforms that automate human workflows, quantify ROI, integrate natively into enterprise systems, and deliver outcome-linked pricing.
What's Going Out - At-Risk Losers: Single-purpose tools, service-heavy models with thin margins, and systems dependent on manual QA or narrative-based marketing.
Investor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Behind the Findings
Black Book's short-term displacement analysis is derived from six qualitative KPIs used by institutional investors, private equity groups, and strategic buyers to gauge which emerging health IT tools are attracting verifiable provider investment and operational scale. These unweighted KPIs were scored by survey respondents across each category and vendor to identify where buyer behavior is shifting away from legacy systems toward new, transformative solutions.
Adoption Velocity & Market Traction - Measures the rate and breadth of new customer acquisition, pilot-to-scale conversions, and enterprise renewals indicating credible commercial momentum.
Solution Stickiness & Retention Confidence - Evaluates recurring revenue durability through clinical workflow integration, user satisfaction, and switching barriers that enhance lifetime value.
Interoperability & Data Leverage - Assesses each platform's ability to natively exchange structured data across EHR, RTLS, and revenue systems-key for interoperability-driven valuation premiums.
Implementation & Support Performance - Reviews deployment timelines, training efficiency, and customer success operations as proxies for scalability and capital efficiency.
Innovation & Automation Depth - Qualitative measure of AI and automation maturity-how deeply the product replaces legacy manual processes, improves clinical throughput, or monetizes new data signals.
Economic Impact & Return Profile - Evaluates early-stage evidence of measurable ROI, reduced cost of ownership, labor substitution, or revenue acceleration, such as lower sitter FTEs, reduced clinician time per encounter, or faster DNFB resolution.
Together, these six indicators provide a forward-looking map of investor-grade confidence where proven buyer behavior and validated ROI are already redirecting capital from first-generation HCIT solutions to next-phase platforms driving the health data transformation economy.
About Black Book Research
For five years, Black Book Research has surveyed past HLTH attendees before each conference, tracking what they predicted, got right, got wrong, missed investing in, or lost money on. Before each HLTH, Black Book reconnects with these executives to capture retrospective accuracy and forward guidance, equipping investors and buyers with evidence-based foresight for immediate and long-term gain.
By merging continuous crowdsourced user-experience data with pre- and post-HLTH research, Black Book identifies the short-term winners and losers that drive market rotation, capital allocation, and M&A activity. Our analysis separates marketing noise from validated ROI and highlights the technology classes producing sustainable valuation growth. Black Book Research is a leading independent source for healthcare client-verified performance benchmarks across health IT and services, supporting decisions for providers, payers, investors, and financial sponsors worldwide, Industry reports are available to investors at https://www.blackbookmarketresearch.com/ or contact us at research@blackbookmarketresearch.com
Editor's Note: Vendor names listed as "Poised Big Winners" reflect buyer-intent signals and KPI performance from the 2025 pulse; they are not endorsements. Part 2 of this investor series will follow HLTH 2025, focusing on long-range shift-makers and capital flow outcomes.
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Source: Black Book Research
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